Polymarket Oscars Prediction Markets Open for 2027 Academy Awards

Prediction market platform Polymarket has opened trading for the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 14, 2027.

Preliminary voting is set for December 7, 2026, with final nominations to be revealed on January 21, 2027.

In the Best Picture market, "Yes" shares for the epic fantasy film "The Odyssey" are trading at 53¢, implying a win probability of 52%.

Its nearest rival is "La Bola Negra," trading at 29¢, following its People’s Choice Award win at the Toronto International Film Festival.

The combined implied probability of either film winning is 80%.

"The Odyssey" has grossed over $621 million in US cinemas, making it the second-highest grossing film of 2026 behind "Spider-Man: New Day."

"The Odyssey" is based on the Greek King Odysseus and his perilous journey home after the Trojan War.

Through 2017, 46 of the 90 Best Picture award winners were categorized as some kind of drama.

Netflix has invested between $4 million and $5 million to secure North American distribution rights for "La Bola Negra."

Between 30 and 35 Best Picture winners can be categorized as either historical or period dramas.

In the Best Actor market, Matt Damon, who stars as Odysseus in "The Odyssey," is trading at 20¢.

The film is a Universal production, a studio renowned as an aggressive marketer of its summer blockbusters.

The current frontrunner is John Malkovich for his role in Martin McDonagh’s "Wild Horse Nine," trading at 43.8¢.

Prior to the Telluride Film Festival starting on September 4, "Yes" shares in Malkovich were priced at just 17¢, a 157.65% increase in five weeks.

Malkovich has only ever received two Academy Award nominations during his career, both in the Best Supporting Actor category, and failed to win on either occasion.

Major awards forecasting platform Gold Derby positions Malkovich as the definitive number-one contender for the Best Actor award.

John Turturro, starring as aging pickpocket Harry Lehman in "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York," is trading at 2.8¢ to win Best Actor.

Sony Pictures Classics won a bidding war for the film’s rights after it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival.

The film’s projected release date is October 16.

Approximately 47% of Best Actor contenders have come from Best Picture-nominated films.